---
title: Project Monte Carlo
description: Model project completion-time risk with Monte Carlo simulation.
order: 13
---

# Project Monte Carlo

Project Monte Carlo turns a project schedule into a **risk curve**. Instead of a
single "we'll finish in 41 days" estimate, it samples each project phase from a
range of likely durations thousands of times and shows the full distribution of
completion times — so you can see how likely you are to finish within a given
number of days, and how much overrun risk sits in the tail.

## What you get

- A **Baseline plan** simulation across five project phases (discovery, design,
  build, test, launch), each modelled as a duration distribution rather than a
  point estimate.
- An **Aggressive timeline** simulation for the same phases on a compressed
  schedule, so you can compare the two side by side.
- For each, the **P50 / P85 / P95** completion estimates and a histogram of the
  full completion-time distribution.

## How it works

Each run samples every phase's duration and adds them up. Repeating that
thousands of times builds the distribution you see. The percentiles answer
questions like "what finish date can I commit to with 85% confidence?"

## Requirements

Running a simulation requires the **Foresight** add-on. Install the app on any
plan to explore it; when you run a simulation without the add-on you'll be
prompted to enable it.